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What is econometrics?

Econometrics involves testing hypotheses and forecasting future trends in economics using statistical and mathematical theories. It compares and contrasts results obtained through statistical trials against real-life examples. Econometrics leverages statistical inference tools such as frequency distributions, probability, simple and multiple regression analysis and time-series methods to quantify and analyze economic theories. Economists use econometrics to study the income effect. The hypothesis in this case, can be, as the income of a person increases, the spending also increases. This hypothesis can be tested and proven using econometrics tools.

A fairly straightforward and simple approach is used in economic analysis. There are four main steps that are followed in econometrics methodology:

  1. Analyzing a set of data to come up with a specific hypothesis that explains the nature and shape of the set – This is where the explanatory variables that are being analyzed are specified. The researcher also identifies the relationship between the dependent and independent variables.
  2. Deciding on a specific statistical model or tool that will be used to test the posed hypothesis – The researcher must settle on an effective model that outlines the relationship between the explanatory variable and the dependent variable to be tested. A linear relationship means that any change in the explanatory variable will definitely have a positive correlation with the dependent variable. Multiple linear regression is the most commonly used tool in econometrics when relationships are to be expressed in linearly.
  3. All the data is entered into the econometric software program – The econometric program makes use of the statistical model chosen to estimate the results by using the economic data provided. There are a variety of econometric software programs the researcher can choose from depending on the level and specialization involved. Our experts can help you with all the programs used in econometrics like Ox, Gretl, Tsp, R, MATLAB, STATA and many more
  4. Hypothesis test – This is the step that provides the validity of the hypothesis. The results obtained from the program are used to conduct a test. This small test is used to establish whether or not the model resulted in good predictions. The hypothesis is considered true if the researchers find what they expected. New hypotheses or inferences are, however, needed when the researchers find wrong results.

Application of econometrics

  • Macroeconomic indicators forecasting – Econometrics can be used to establish effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the aggregate performance of the economy. Tools such as time-series models are often used to make predictions about these economic indicators.
  • Determining the reasons why firms enter and exit a market – Factors such as existing profit levels, fixed costs, and government regulations can influence a market structure. An organization can use econometrics to identify important reasons why it should enter a market or exit.
  • Identifying the relationship between worker productivity and management techniques – Most firms implement high-performance work practices like worker autonomy, and flexible work schedule policies to keep their employees happy. Managers can use econometric models to know if the cost of implementing these policies exceeds the productivity benefits.
  • Forecasting revenue increment after a marketing campaign – Empirical methods have become the backbone of marketing. Econometric techniques address questions such as which type of advertising will have the largest impact on sales? Or how much revenue can be generated after the organization has spent on advertising?

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