Examining data using Monte Carlo and Bayesian statistics

Examining data using Monte Carlo and Bayesian statistics

The Monte Carlo and Bayesian statistics are some of the most popular mathematical techniques for exploring data. They enable researchers to draw valuable inferences from data and come up with viable solutions to various statistical problems. In this post, our Monte Carlo assignment help experts look at both of these techniques and how they are used in examining data to make them a little easier to understand.

Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo simulation is a statistical method used to generate random variables for modeling uncertainty or risk of a given system. Usually, the random variables are generated using a specific probability distribution such as normal distribution, log normal distribution, etc. Then a series of simulations or iterations are run to generate data paths and the final solution is obtained by implementing suitable numerical computation methods.

Monte Carlo simulation is commonly used in models that have uncertain parameters and in the analysis of complex data systems. The technique is mostly applied in a variety of disciplines such as computational biology, physical science, quantitative finance, artificial intelligence, and statistics. It is worth noting that Monte Carlo models provide probabilistic estimates of the uncertainty in the systems or data being examined; the technique is never deterministic. Nevertheless, given the risk or uncertainty ingrained in a specific system, this technique can be a useful tool in approximating reality. In other words, Monte Carlo models enable researchers to identify the possible outcomes of a certain decision, which ultimately helps them take more informed decisions under uncertainty. Apart from decision outcomes, this technique also enables researchers to identify the probabilities of outcomes. For more information about Monte Carlo simulation and how it is used to examine data models, liaise with our Monte Carlo assignment help experts.

Bayesian statistics

Our Bayesian statistics homework help experts define Bayesian statistics as a mathematical technique used for applying probability in mathematical problems. It provides researchers with statistical tools and features to update their beliefs about random variables after viewing new evidence or data about these variables. In fact, Bayesian statistics define probability as the measure of confidence or faith(measured numerically)  that a person may possess about the likelihood of a given event to occur.

For example, you may believe something  about a given event but that belief  is likely to change when new data or evidence about the event is brought to light. Basically, Bayesian statistics give researchers and data analysts a solid statistical way of putting their prior beliefs, data and new evidence together to produce new beliefs (inferences).

This contrasts with another type of statistical inference known as frequentist or classical statistics that makes assumptions on data, the assumptions being that probability is the frequency of a given random event happening in long series of repeated trials. For instance, if you roll a six sided die several times, you would see that every number written on the die tends to be displayed on top 1/6 of the time. Frequentist statistics attempts to eliminate uncertainty by providing estimates of the outcomes. Bayesian statistics on the other hand tries to refine and preserve uncertainty by changing prior beliefs when new evidence is provided. Researchers use these two techniques to examine data in order to make the most accurate approximations and find out how variables change when new evidenceor data is introduced in a statistical model.

Both Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian statistics are used hand in hand for data analysis to build effective mathematical models and approximate the outcomes of the models. To have these two techniques explained further, connect with our Bayesian statistics homework help experts.